Weapons of Mass Destruction and Terrorism, Second Edition

Foreword Michael A. Sheehan

Preface

Unit One—Conceptual Frameworks

Introduction

1.1 Definitions, Trends, and the Concept of New Terrorism

Russell D. Howard and Margaret J. Nencheck The New Terrorism

Brian Michael Jenkins The New Age of Terrorism

1.2 The Nature of the Post-9/11 WMD Terrorism Threat

Bruce Hoffman CBRN Terrorism Post-9/11

James J. F. Forest Opportunities and Limitations for WMD Terrorism

Leonard A. Cole WMD and Lessons from the Anthrax Attacks

Unit Two—Weapons and Motivations

Introduction

2.1 Chemical Weapons

National Academies and Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet:: Chemical Warfare Agents, Industrial Chemicals, and Toxins

Jonathan B. Tucker Chemical Terrorism:: Assessing Threats and Responses

2.2 Biological Weapons

National Academies and Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet:: Human Pathogens, Biotoxins, and Agricultural Threats

James W. Martin, George W. Christopher, and Edward M. Eitzen History of Biological Weapons:: From Poisoned Darts to Intentional Epidemics

Brian Finlay The Bioterror Pipeline:: Big Pharma, Patent Expirations, and New Challenges to Global Security

Benjamin Wittes Innovations Darker Future:: Biosecurity, Technologies of Mass Empowerment, and the Constitution

2.3 Radiological Weapons

National Academies and Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet:: Dirty Bombs and Other Devices

Charles D. Ferguson and Michelle M. Smith Assessing Radiological Weapons:: Attack Methods and Estimated Effects

2.4 Nuclear Weapons

National Academies and Department of Homeland Security Fact Sheet:: Nuclear Weapons

Morten Bremer Maerli, Annette Schaper, and Frank Barnaby The Characteristics of Nuclear Terrorist Weapons

Matthew Bunn and Anthony Wier The Seven Myths of Nuclear Terrorism

John Mueller The Atomic Terrorist?

2.5 Case Studies

David Albright and Corey Hinderstein Unraveling the A.Q. Khan and Future Proliferation Networks

Jeffrey M. Bale The North Caucasus Conflict and the Potential for Radiological Terrorism

Robert Jones, Brandon Wills, and Christopher Kang Chlorine Gas:: An Evolving Hazardous Material Threat and Unconventional Weapon

Unit Three—Critical Infrastructure Dimensions

Introduction

3.1 Public Spaces, Transportation Networks, and Other Critical Infrastructure

Gary A. Ackerman, Jeffrey M. Bale, and Kevin S. Moran Assessing the Threat to Critical Infrastructure

Homeland Security & Defense Business Council Mass Transit Security

3.2 Chemical and Biological Threats

John McNabb Chemical and Biological Threats against Public Water Systems

Mark Wheelis, Rocco Casagrande, and Laurence V. Madden Biological Attack on Agriculture:: Low-Tech, High-Impact Bioterrorism

3.3 Nuclear Reactors

Gavin Cameron Nuclear Terrorism:: Reactors & Radiological Attacks after September 11

George Bunn and Chaim Braun Terrorism Potential for Research Reactors Compared with Power Reactors:: Nuclear Weapons, Dirty Bombs, and Truck Bombs

Unit Four—Responding to the Threat

Introduction

4.1 Strategy and Policy

Mary Beth Nikitin, Paul K. Kerr, and Steven A. Hildreth Proliferation Control Regimes:: Background and Status

Albert J. Mauroni A Counter-WMD Strategy for the Future

Russell D. Howard Preemptive Military Doctrine:: No Other Choice

4.2 Intelligence

Matthew C. Waxman Self-Defense and the Limits of WMD Intelligence

Brian Finlay Minding Our Business:: The Role of the Private Sector in Managing the WMD Supply Chain

4.3 Response and Resilience

Ashton B. Carter, Michael M. May, and William J. Perry The Day After:: Action Following a Nuclear Blast in a U.S. City

Ronald W. Perry and Michael K. Lindell Understanding Citizen Response to Disasters with Implications for Terrorism

4.4 Unique Challenges of Responding to Bioterrorism Threats and Attacks

Lea Ann Fracasso Developing Immunity:: The Challenges of Mandating Vaccinations in the Wake of a Biological Terrorist Attack

Crystal Franco and Nidhi Bouri Environmental Decontamination Efforts Following a Large-Scale Bioterrorism Attack:: Federal Progress and Remaining Gaps

Gregory D. Koblentz and Jonathan B. Tucker Tracing an Attack:: The Promise and Pitfalls of Microbial Forensics

Sam Berger and Jonathan D. Moreno Public Trust, Public Health, and Public Safety:: A Progressive Response to Bioterrorism

4.5 Case Studies

David Albright, Paul Brannan, and Andrea Scheel Stricker Detecting and Disrupting Illicit Nuclear Trade after A.Q. Khan

Elin Gursky, Thomas V. Inglesby, and Tara OToole Anthrax 2001:: Observations on the Medical and Public Health Response

Robyn Pangi Consequence Management in the 1995 Sarin Attacks on the Japanese Subway System

Xavier Stewart An All-Hazards Training Center for a Catastrophic Emergency

Unit Five—Assessing the Future WMD Threat

Introduction

5.1 Gregory D. Koblentz Predicting Peril or the Peril of Prediction? Assessing the Risk of CBRN Terrorism

5.2 Joshua Sinai and James J.F. Forest Threat Convergence:: A Framework for Analyzing the Potential for WMD Terrorism

5.3 Forrest E. Waller, Jr. and Michael A. George Emerging WMD Technologies

5.4 Adam Dolnik and James J.F. Forest Conclusion:: Appreciating the Past and Present, Anticipating the Future

Appendix

A.1 Prevention of WMD Proliferation and Terrorism Report Card (January 2010)

A.2 National Strategy for Counterterrorism (June 2011)

A.3 A National Strategy for CBRNE Standards (May 2011)

Credits

Index